SVBEI Media 2019 - SVB Energy

SVB Energy International in the Media 2019

OPEC Agrees to Deeper Cuts Ahead of Aramco IPO

OPEC Agrees to Deeper Cuts Ahead of Aramco IPO: December 5, 2019 - The crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed, agreed on the cuts in a face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of a Formula One championship Saturday in Abu Dhabi, one person said. But Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban spoiled some of the positive impact by leaking the plan the same day. Oil prices increased by less than 1% on the news as OPEC experts doubted the decision would lead to actual reductions. With the coalition already producing 450,000 barrels a day below requirements, “this is playing with facts and not the cut,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based consulting firm SVB Energy International. “It’s basically an assurance to the market that the current overall output will continue for the next three more months.”

Iraq says proposal to deepen OPEC+ cuts to 1.6 mil b/d to be discussed in Vienna

S&P Global Platts: December 4, 2019 - Energy strategist Dr Sara Vakhshouri explains how the US ban on Russian oil imports won't put too much of a strain on the Russian economy, but that coordinated Western bans on Russian oil could see crude spike to 300 US dollars per barrel.

Iran hikes gasoline prices amid cash crunch from US sanctions

S&P Global Platts: November 15, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said US sanctions, along with International Maritime Organization emissions rules, were expected to cause a reduction of refinery capacity in Iran or sales of high-sulfur fuel oil at large discounts. "Higher gasoline prices could help with offsetting this refinery loss," Vakhshouri said.

I ran's oil exports face new security threat

S&P Global Platts: October 11, 2019 - President of energy consultancy SVB Energy International Sara Vakhshouri said these attacks suggest that Iran and its adversaries have entered into "a tit for tat war" by targeting each other's energy facilities. "The mistrust between Iran and its Arab neighbors could intensify the tensions in the region," she said. "The potential miscalculations from each side poses a significant threat against the security of oil and gas supply and flow from their region and have an upward impact on the energy market and prices."

Iran eyeing more attacks on oil supply as part of sanctions relief push: analysts

S&P Global Platts: October 9, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said that Iran could also target UAE's electric grid system, as part of a physical or cyberattack. "Because of the US zero export policy, Iran's strategic patience has come to an end," Vakhshouri said. "Instead, they're creating crisis to manage another crisis." A potential follow-up to the September 14 attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities appears to be a question of when, not if with analysts. The timing seems to depend on US willingness to ease sanctions, something some analysts see as a possibility despite repeated pledges from the Trump administration to exert a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran.

OPEC, Russia Hold Off Pumping More Oil After Saudi Attack

Wall Street Journal: September 16, 2019 - “There are units that were completely destroyed and have to be rebuilt,” one Aramco executive said. Still, Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington, D.C., consulting firm SVB Energy International, said, “The Kingdom has enough domestic crude oil inventories to cover its production suspension of 5.7 (million barrels a day) for almost 30 days.” President Trump provided some relief late Sunday by authorizing the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve if needed to stabilize energy markets. The president also said he had “informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States.”

Oil Prices Close 15% Higher On Record Trading Day

Oil Price: September 16, 2019 - Immediately after the attack, Saudi Arabia suggested that operations could resume as soon as Monday. “We should be able to have 2 million barrels a day back online…by tomorrow,” a person familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal on Sunday. But as the weekend wore on, a quick turnaround looked increasingly unlikely. An extended outage would drive up prices substantially. The oil market has gone from oversupplied to under-supplied overnight. “The Kingdom has enough domestic crude oil inventories to cover its production suspension of 5.7 (million barrels a day) for almost 30 days,” Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, told the Wall Street Journal.

Oil May Jump at Least $5 a Barrel After Saudi Arabia Attack

Yahoo Finance: September 15, 2019 - “We do NOT expect a shock in the market and prices as an effect of the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, because the market is fully supplied,” Sara Vakhshouri, analyst at SVB Energy, said by email. The price rise Monday will be based on uncertainty over damage and duration of the outage, and fear of the possibility of repeat events, she said

Oil May Jump at Least $5 a Barrel After Saudi Arabia Attack

Bloomberg: September 15, 2019 - “We do NOT expect a shock in the market and prices as an effect of the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, because the market is fully supplied,” Sara Vakhshouri, analyst at SVB Energy, said by email. The price rise Monday will be based on uncertainty over damage and duration of the outage, and fear of the possibility of repeat events, she said

Saudi Arabia Has Enough Inventory to Cover 30-Day Suspension, Says SVB Energy’s President

English: September 15, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president at SVB Energy International, discusses the drone attack on a Saudi Arabia oil plant and its implications for oil markets. She speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabia's new energy minister brings old school diplomacy to Opec

The National: September. 14, 2019 - The approach was very different to Khalid Al Falih, an ex-Saudi Aramco chief executive who led the group through a difficult patch after oil crashed to below $30 in 2016, forming alliances with non-members, particularly Russia, as they worked together to counter the US shale dominance of the industry. Mr Al Falih would talk to the markets, taking an almost central bank governor approach, using terms such as "whatever it takes" to address issues critical to the industry. According to Sara Vakhshouri, of SVB Energy, Prince Abdulaziz takes Opec back to a more consensual decision-making process, rather than having Saudi Arabia or Russia unilaterally taking policy decisions for members.

OPEC+ members pledge to do better on quota compliance, but no new oil cuts

S&P Global Platts: Sept. 12, 2019 - "'Full compliance' was the mantra of this JMMC meeting as an important component of maintaining the agreement," said Sara Vakhshouri, who heads the energy consultancy SVB Energy and attended the proceedings.

Trump is reportedly considering throwing a $15 billion lifeline to Iran

Business Insider: September 12, 2019 - Sanctions against Iran have largely crippled its economy and isolated it from world markets. Iran, which heavily relies on its export of 2.3 million barrels of oil a day, saw this number plummet to 1.1 million barrels in March, according to SVB Energy International. Iran's currency, the rial, has also sunk to the US dollar, forcing the country to enact regulatory changes and to create numerous exchange rates to curb the black market. As the US enacted more sanctions against what it called a "wide range of terrorists and their supporters" — including Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard — the Iranian government said it would not negotiate unless the sanctions were lifted. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has announced that the country plans to restart production of highly enriched uranium, a move observers say is a step toward a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s Dark Tanker Fleet Poses Oil World’s Biggest Mystery

Bloomberg: September 7, 2019 - The actual volume that Iran is selling for cash is probably even lower, according to Sara Vakhshouri, head of consultants SVB Energy International in Washington, D.C. Some cargoes are sold to repay debts to China, and others are moved into so-called bonded storage there without passing customs, meaning they’re still owned by Iran. As a result, total sales in July may have been as little as 100,000 barrels a day, she said.

Iran Accuses U.S. Of Stoking Arms Race In The Strait Of Hormuz

Here and Now, NPR: August 21, 2019 - Tensions have been on the rise in the Gulf since the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions aimed at Iran’s oil exports. After Iran seized a British tanker last month, the U.S. launched a naval mission to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial choke point between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean through which about one fifth of the world’s oil travels. Here & Now's Jeremy Hobson talks with Sara Vakhshouri (@SVakhshouri), founder and president of SVB Energy International, a strategic energy consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C., and Dubai.

Oil Trapped In Narrow Price Band

Yahoo Finance: July 31, 2019 - At the same time, Iran’s oil exports continue to fall. According to Reuters, Iranian shipments may have plunged as low as 100,000 bpd in July – another massive decline – down from 400,000 bpd in June. The precise figure is up for debate, especially since some tankers can turn off their transponders to avoid detection. But it’s safe to say that exports are in decline. “We can’t be sure that all of this capacity has been sold in July,” Sara Vakhshouri, an analyst at SVB Energy International, told Reuters. “Also, it’s important to note that some of the deliveries mostly to China are based on IOU contracts and are not new sales.” Iran shipped as much as 2.5 mb/d prior to the return of sanctions in early 2018.

US to sanction China if Iranian crude trade continues: State

S&P Global Platts: July 11, 2019 - Administration officials believe the push for "maximum pressure" on Iran is being weakened by ongoing crude flows between Iran and China. China continues to import about 150,000 b/d to 220,000 b/d of Iranian crude, much of it in the form of debt repayment, according to Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International.

Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Ever-Complex Geopolitics of Oil

Council on Foreign Relations: July 3, 2019 - As Mideast oil expert Sara Vakhshouri wrote in a report for the Atlantic Council in 2015, “Most of Iran’s oil fields are old and mature, which means they require further investment and treatments like gas reinjection, in order to maintain current production levels. The country’s oil wells are mostly in the second half of their lives, and are facing continued natural depletion of production capacity at the rate of 8-11 percent per year. It is estimated that Iranian oil fields lose between 300,000 to 500,000 b/d of natural reduction every year due to maturity of fields.”

OPEC and allies set to consider nine-month oil cut extension

S&P Global Platts: June 30, 2019 - OPEC and allies set to consider nine-month oil cut extension Sara Vakhshouri, who heads the consultancy SVB Energy International, said the unveiling of the nine-month proposal by Putin highlights Russia's influence over OPEC. The announcement "undermines the role of other OPEC members in the policy making and major decisions that are taken by OPEC," Vakhshouri said.

What if the U.S. stopped protecting the Strait of Hormuz?

Market Place: June 24, 2019 - “Still, the U.S. is importing from the Middle East, but the dependency is not that significant,” said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy. She said that reduction in oil imports is thanks, in large part, to fracking, which has boosted domestic oil production. Vakhshouri said a disruption could cause a slight uptick in gas prices here. But for China, Japan and India, a disruption could result in a legitimate energy shortage. That’s why Vakhshouri thinks the administration has some leverage. “They’re suggesting, ‘Why [should] our taxpayers … pay for the security of oil that goes to India or to China? They need to contribute,'” she said. “But I don’t think they’re suggesting that the U.S. should totally leave the Strait of Hormuz.” But Trump did write, “All of these countries should be protecting their own ships.” It’s unclear what the consequences would be if the United States did pull out of the strait.

US presses other countries to police Strait of Hormuz

S&P Global Platts: June 18, 2019 - But that price jump was largely due to the US-China trade dispute and uncertainty over future talks and the impact of tariffs on the world economy, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. "Historically, the oil prices would react to such an incident in a very hypersensitive matter," Vakhshouri told Platts. "This time, the market has kept its calm which is historically very ununusual. US shale oil production, export capacity and a high level of inventories gives the market the signal that there is enough supply."

Oil to be under pressure due to US, China trade tensions

Gulf News: June 9, 2019 - Meanwhile Iran, which is under US sanctions exported about 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of oil and condensate in May, according to Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of Washington based SVB Energy International. “Most of Iran’s oil sales and delivers in the month of May took place in the grey market through middlemen,” she said. Iranian oil production in May was at 2.35 mbd (million barrels per day), down from 2.6 mbd in April.

U.S. Delays Petrochemical Sanctions on Iran

Wall Street Journal: May 31, 2019 - "We heard from different sources that Iran exported 500,000-600,000 barrels a day of oil and condensate in May," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. By comparison, exports stood at around 1.1 million barrels a day in March, Ms. Vakhshouri said last month, and at 2.5 million barrels a year ago when president Donald Trump said he would place sanctions on Iran. Iran received no purchase contracts from its formal clients during the month of May, including from China, Ms Vakhshouri said. Some of the cargo booked in May--as much as 200,000 to 320,000 barrels a day--could be part of debt repayment contracts with China and India for past work in Iran, she said. Most of Iran's oil sales and deliveries in the month of May took place in the grey market through middlemen, she said.

MARKET WATCH: Crude oil prices mixed on geopolitics

Oil and Gas Journal: May 21, 2019 - Sara Vakshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC, said OPEC monitoring committee members are trying to determine Iran’s oil sales given US oil sanctions against that country. “On the other side, the global inventories, particularly US inventories, are high and are still rising, which suggests there is no lack of supplies and the market is somehow oversupplied,” Vakshouri said. Meanwhile, oil investors are concerned about possible disruption to oil flow from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf following recent damage to Saudi tankers and other infrastructure. Saudi officials have called the tanker attacks an “act of sabotage” but did not say who was responsible.

UAE, Saudi oil ministers say crude supplies are plentiful

Gulf News: May 19, 2019 - The global inventories particularly in the US inventories are high and are still raising, which suggests that there is no lack of supplies and the market is somehow oversupplied, according to Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International. “The main challenge for the members is to find out how much Iran’s formal and especially the informal oil sales in the grey market would be.”

OPEC+ Has More Work to Do Because Inventories Are Rising, Minister Says

Bloomberg: May 18, 2019 - The global inventories particularly in the U.S. inventories are high and are still rising, which suggests that there is no lack of supplies,” said Sara Vakhshouri, head of Washington, D.C.-based consultant SVB Energy International. “During this JMMC the main challenge for the members is to find out how much Iran’s formal and especially the informal oil sales in the grey market would be,” Vakhshouri said.

Iran's crude exports slide to 500,000 bpd or less: sources

Reuters: May 17, 2019 - The Iranian official, who is familiar with oil policy, had forecast exports could drop to 700,000 bpd but possibly as low as 500,000 bpd. The OPEC source said they are likely to continue at about 400,000 to 600,000 bpd. Some analysts expect May shipments to be even less. Sara Vakhshouri, of consultancy SVB Energy International, expected exports between 200,000 bpd and 550,000 bpd. “Iran already has plenty of stored oil and condensate in China,” she said. “So we don’t expect a significant shipment of oil in the month of May.”

Oil Prices Are Being Hit By The Perfect Storm—And Laughing It Off

Fortune: May 17, 2019 - The Gulf region produces more than a third of the world’s oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, so the natural assumption would be that prices would spike. Nonetheless, “prices have remained calm, and didn’t show the usual historical reaction to such incidents,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, D.C.

Iran's crude exports slide to 500,000 bpd or less: sources

MARKET WATCH: Oil prices fall awaiting Persian Gulf news

Oil & Gas Journal: May 14, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC, said that repeated incidents in major oil production and transportation areas “creates uncertainty and panic in the market,” adding, “Particularly now that market expects much lower exports from Iran (and Venezuela) due to US sanctions.” Vakhshouri noted Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are withholding some production capacity as previously agreed upon to support oil prices. Some non-OPEC producers also are involved in the production-cut targets. “We should also keep in mind that most of the US supplies are light crude oil and can’t…supply market demands for heavy crude oil, which is mostly produced in the Persian Gulf region and passes through the Strait of Hormuz,” Vakhshouri said.

Attacks to Raise Security, Insurance Costs for Persian Gulf Oil Shipments Oil prices climb 1.2% after drone attacks dama

Wall Street Journal: May 14, 2019 - The attacks heightened worries about global oil supply amid petroleum-production outages because of unrest in Venezuela, a civil war in Libya and sanctions on Iran. Oil prices initially rose in response to the incidents Monday but fell when traders focused attention back on China’s trade dispute with the U.S. Brent oil prices recently climbed 1.2% to $71.10 a barrel after the Saudi pipeline attack and after a U.S. official claimed Iran was likely behind the tanker attack. “If the market starts believing that Iran was behind this sabotage and such incidents could possibly happen again in the same scale or larger, the prices could increase even further,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based oil consulting firm SVB Energy International.

Ship sabotage in UAE adds to Gulf oil supply risks

S&P Global Platts: May 13, 2019 - Fujairah is one of the world's biggest bunkering hubs and lies just outside of the Strait of Hormuz, giving it a strategic location for oil trading. The UAE has a pipeline that it could divert crude to Fujairah in the event that the strait is blocked. The Habshan pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million b/d, around half of the UAE's total crude production. But Sara Vakhshouri, who heads the SVB Energy International consultancy in Washington, said Sunday's incident "increases the vulnerability of the alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz."

How will Trump's Iran oil gamble affect the global economy?

Aljazeera English: May 5, 2019 - "Can the US substitute Iranian oil - really no, because the crude quality matters. Iranian crude oil is heavy. US crude oil is light," according to Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International. "The best match for Iranian crude oil is Saudi crude oil and the other closest is from the UAE." Before Saudi Arabia can increase its oil production, "they're waiting to see how much Iranian oil supply is going to be excluded from the market, how much Iran can smuggle or sell informally and if the US government would come up with some waivers formally or informally. So they will wait ... and then act accordingly to manage the market and substitute Iranian oil. "If we want Saudi Arabia to cover for Iranian oil with its spare capacity, then if there's any other event, the market would not have enough spare capacity to cover for that in an event of any major incident. And that would have significant impact on the [oil] prices," says Vakhshouri.

Countries importing Iran oil could face economic sanctions

Financial Tribune: May 4, 2019 - Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International in Washington told Gulf News Iran might be able to smuggle 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day of oil under the current sanctions but going beyond this number would be difficult. “It is very hard to hide oil cargoes at sea. Even if those middlemen that are not concerned about violating US sanctions purchase Iranian oil, no end user would want to process an oil that originated from Iran because of the risks involved and hence this limits Iran’s informal sales or smuggled oil.” She, however, said Iran has some ongoing oil delivery agreements as part of certain debts to China, and India and the US government might allow such deliveries to continue. “These are not sales. This could add between 200,000-350,000 barrels per day to what Iran would smuggle. We estimate about 120,000-200,000 barrels per day of debt payments to China and about 100,000-150,000 barrels per day of debt payment deliveries to India.”

Iran's oil exports to slide in May, but not to zero

Reuters: May 3, 2019 - One Iranian official familiar with oil policy said exports could drop to 700,000 bpd and as low as 500,000 bpd from May onwards. An OPEC source said Iranian exports would likely continue at about 400,000 to 600,000 bpd. Iran would likely be able to maintain some shipments for debt repayment to China and India, and into storage in China, and smuggle a limited extra amount as it did under previous sanctions, analyst Sara Vakhshouri said. “It’s important to note that zero oil sales in May doesn’t mean that there will not be oil deliveries to China or India in the month,” she said. “In total, Iran could export between 200,000 to 550,000 of oil. of which not all is sold oil.”

Benchmark crude prices hold steady on uncertain world oil supply

Oil and Gas Journal: May 2, 2019 - Under earlier international nuclear-related sanctions, Iran smuggled about 150,000-200,000 b/d to market, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC. “Iran might be able to smuggle the same amount of oil under the current sanctions but going significantly beyond this is hard to imagine,” Vakhshouri said. “It is very hard to hide oil cargos on the sea.” Even if middlemen unconcerned about violating US sanctions were to purchase the Iranian oil, no end user would want to process oil from Iran because of the risks involved with going against US sanctions, Vakhshouri said. She noted Iran has some ongoing oil delivery agreements as part of certain debt payment to China and India. She said US officials might allow these oil deliveries because they are not sales. She estimates 100,000-150,000 b/d of debt payment deliveries to India. Separately, Saudi Arabia has scheduled a technical meeting on May 19 in Jeddah to discuss with other producers how much oil should be produced to counterbalance the gap left by less Iranian oil on world markets. Meanwhile, US State Department officials suggest Saudi Arabia and Kuwait resolve a dispute over jointly held Khafji oil field in the Partitioned Neutral Zone, an area with onshore and offshore fields north of the Persian Gulf.

US push to zero Iran oil exports may be more like 500,000 b/d

S&P Global Platts: May 1, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said as much as 200,000 b/d of Iranian crude may continue to be smuggled in violation of US sanctions, based on flows the last time full US sanctions were imposed. In addition, Vakhshouri said, as many as 200,000 b/d of shipments to China and as much as 150,000 in shipments to India made as debt payments may be allowed to continue.

Iran Vows to Resist U.S. Oil Ban as Its Exports Decline

Wall Street Journal: May 1, 2019 - None of Iran’s oil buyers—including China, which normally receives about 400,000 barrels a day from Tehran—have committed to buying cargo for shipment this month, said Sara Vakhshouri. Some oil could still be smuggled or moved to storage abroad. China and India could also receive some oil shipments in the coming months for repayment of port and oil-field work carried out in Iran, but only if the U.S. authorizes it, she said

China, US face off on Iranian crude flows, with risks to global economy

Hellenic Shipping News: April 30, 2019 - In addition, the US may choose not to sanction Iranian crude sent to China to repay debt, according to Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Since these barrels would be used to repay debt and not generate revenue for Iran, the US may permit them, Vakhshouri said. She estimated that as much as 200,000 b/d of Iranian crude could be shipped to China in the form of debt repayment.

Does zero mean zero? Why Iranian oil exports won’t end as waivers expire

S&P Global Platts: April 29, 2019 - The Trump administration will not extend its Iran sanctions waivers to China, India and other buyers in an attempt to push Iran exports to zero. But Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, argues on today's Platts Capitol Crude that even with strict US sanctions coming into full force this week, as many as 550,000 b/d of Iranian crude could continue to be exported by Iran. Vakhshouri estimates that as many as 200,000 b/d could be sold to smugglers on international waters while Iran could continue to ship as much as 150,000 b/d to India and 200,000 b/d to China as part of debt repayment programs. Since these exports to China and India would be debt repayment, not revenue to Iran, the US may allow those imports to continue, Vakhshouri argues. In this interview, Vakhshouri also talks about who may fill the supply gap created by US sanctions; the impact on Venezuela, Libya and other supply risks; and whether China may simply decide to not comply with sanctions as its waiver expires.

China, US face off on Iranian crude flows, with risks to global economy

S&P Global Platts: April 26, 2019 - In addition, the US may choose not to sanction Iranian crude sent to China to repay debt, according to Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Since these barrels would be used to repay debt and not generate revenue for Iran, the US may permit them, Vakhshouri said. She estimated that as much as 200,000 b/d of Iranian crude could be shipped to China in the form of debt repayment.

Trump wants to push Iran to the point of no return

Washington Post: April 24, 2019 - “The Saudis, OPEC, and Russia could cover for Iranian oil, but the market will be really tight, and prices will increase significantly, as there will not be much spare capacity left in the market for any potential additional supply interruption,” Sara Vakhshouri, an Iranian oil expert.

Crude benchmarks jump on US refusal to extend sanctions waivers

Oil and Gas Journal: April 23, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, SVB Energy International president in Washington, DC, said, “If Iran oil exports hit zero, there will be significant consequences on the oil market and prices.” She noted world oil supplies are lower than usual because of US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. “Iran zero-export policy will also have a psychological impact on both paper ad physical oil prices,” which will give oil prices upward momentum, she said.

Iran Zero Oil Export Policy

BBC 5 Live Radio: April 23, 2019 - Dr. Vakhshouri spoke with Rhod Sharp of BBC Five Live Radio on US zero Iran oil export policy.

Crude rallies as US sharpens moves to curb Iran exports

Financial Times: April 22, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, energy consultant at SVB Energy International said a “zero export policy” would have “significant consequences on the oil market and prices.”

Iran sanctions: What will become of oil prices?

The Market Place: April 22, 2019 - For a year, the Trump administration has been threatening to choke off oil sales from Iran, which it sees as an outlaw regime that destabilizes the Middle East. The White House says this time it's serious. In nine days the U.S. will make no exceptions to sanctions — no country that imports oil from Iran will be exempt. Iranian crude exports will likely plummet. It turns out that oil markets were not expecting a no-tolerance policy. Traders are worried that tightening Iran's spigot could leave the world with too little oil. Dr. Vakhshouri spoke with Scott Tong of Market Place on this issue.

Trump’s Big Iran Oil Gamble

Foreign Policy: April 22, 2019 - “The Saudis, OPEC, and Russia could cover for Iranian oil, but the market will be really tight, and prices will increase significantly, as there will not be much spare capacity left in the market for any potential additional supply interruption,” said Sara Vakhshouri, an Iranian oil expert and president of SVB Energy International, a consultancy.

U.S. Ends Oil Sanctions Waivers For Iran

Lobelog: April 22, 2019 - In that respect, according to Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of Washington-based SVB Energy International, the timing seemed somewhat peculiar given its proximity to summer when gasoline demand in the U.S. hits its peak. “But it will also have a psychological impact on both paper and physical oil prices, as it increases the risk of war and global-supply interruption,” she said. “Market anticipations of Iran’s different responses to the ‘Zero-export’ policy and potential supply interruptions create uncertainty and push prices even higher.”

Oil prices hit 2019 high amid US clampdown on Iran

Gulf News: April 22, 2019 - “If Iran oil export hits zero, there will be significant consequences on the oil market and prices. Zero Iran export naturally will have impact on the actual supply in the market at a time when oil supplies are less than usual due to Iran and Venezuela sanctions,” Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International told Gulf News. “This is also happening as summer would approach and US hits the high gasoline peak demand.” She also added Saudi Arabia, Opec and Russia could cover for Iran oil, but the market will be really tight. “Prices will increase significantly as there will be not much spare capacity left in the market for any potential additional supply interruption.”

Tightened U.S. Ban on Iran Rattles Oil World

The Wall Street Journal: April 22, 2019 - “The #Chinese are very committed” to the #Iranian #nucleardeal in principle. But their overarching objective is of course their relationship on trade with the U.S.”

Iran's oil exports fall in March even before further U.S. clampdown: sources

Reuters: April 21, 2019 - "We do expect less Iranian oil exports after May,” said Sara Vakhshouri of energy consultant SVB Energy International. “However, we don’t think that OPEC will increase its production in anticipation of lower Iranian oil exports, but only if there are clear signs of further Iran and/or Venezuelan export cuts in the market,” Vakhshouri said.

Trump Libya shift likely driven by oil, gasoline price fears: analysts

S&P Global Platts: April 19, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said she expects the Trump administration to extend some of those waivers, but said officials could also increase pressure on Iran by applying new sanctions on Iran petrochemical exports, petroleum products or non-oil export items.

MARKET WATCH: Brent crude for June drops yet holds above $71/bbl

Oil and Gas Journal: April 16, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC, noted some of Iran’s West Karu oil fields have been flooded, shutting production for a few weeks. “We do expect a lower oil production” in April and May, Vakhshouri told OGJ in an e-mail. She estimated Iran’s March production at 2.69 million b/d and its March exports at 1.1-1.2 million b/d. Vakhshouri expects US President Donald Trump’s administration will extend some existing waivers on Iranian sanctions to certain countries. “We expect…waivers extension in May,” she said. “We think there are very high chances that China and India and perhaps Turkey will receive waivers but with further cuts compared to the current 180-day waivers. This will put Iran’s oil exports somewhere around 470,000-500,000 b/d.”

Analysis: Iranian oil exports recover close to pre-sanction levels

S&P Global Platts: April 9, 2019 - The US administration insists that it is committed to "zeroing out" Iranian crude oil exports but most analysts remain skeptical that exports would fall to this number. "We don't expect Iran oil exports to reach to actual zero. Zero Iran oil export poses a serious threat against the security of oil flow, especially from the Persian Gulf," said Sara Vakshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Vakshouri estimated Iran's oil exports to average 470,000-500,000 b/d if only China, India and Turkey receive exemptions. "If Japan and South Korea also succeed to receive Iran oil import waivers, Iran oil export could reach to 670,000-850,000 b/d," she added. A moderate number of Iran's state-owned oil tankers continue to not broadcasting their geographical positions, making it tricky to ascertain the exact amount of the country's seaborne crude exports.

US to extend Iran oil sanctions waivers to China, India, South Korea, Turkey: survey

S&P Global Platts: March 29, 2019 - According Sara Vakshouri, president of SVB Energy International, Iran's oil exports will fall to between 700,000 b/d and 950,000 b/d if the US grants waivers to all countries currently importing Iranian crude. But if the administration takes a stricter stance, requiring countries to further reduce imports and allowing waivers for Korea and Japan to expire, Iranian imports could fall as low as 500,000 b/d after May.

Iran's oil exports fall in March even before further U.S. clampdown -sources

Reuters: March 21, 2019 - “We do expect less Iranian oil exports after May,” said Sara Vakhshouri of energy consultant SVB Energy International. “However, we don’t think that OPEC will increase its production in anticipation of lower Iranian oil exports, but only if there are clear signs of further Iran and/or Venezuelan export cuts in the market,” Vakhshouri said. Venezuela, an OPEC member, is also under U.S. sanctions which have curbed its exports.

MARKET WATCH: NYMEX crude oil settles above $59/bbl

Oil & Gas Journal: March 19, 2019 - Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC, said, “This is a clear message to the US administration that OPEC will not increase its production unless there are actual signs that Iran and Venezuela’s production are going to be cut. US waivers for Iran oil imports will expire in early May. Unless OPEC members know how much exactly these waivers are going to impact Iran’s oil exports, they won’t plan to increase their production.” Iran’s crude oil production capacity—not actual production—has increased because of completion of some West Karun fields, Vakhshouri said.

Tehran left in the cold as old allies cut crude imports

Petroleum Economist: March 8, 2019 - Tehran had hoped long-standing crude buyer China might withstand American pressure and continue to buy its oil-imports averaged 590,000bl/d in the May-October 2018 period, according to figures from consultancy SVB Energy International — but recent volumes are well down on this level. Iranian exports to China remain well down on the levels witnessed during the last extended period of sanctions endured by the country in the 2012-15 period. In those years it sold an average 448,000bl/d to Beijing, according to SVB figures. India, with which Iran has close economic relations, appears unlikely to provide significant relief. Its imports from Iran in January were just 234,000bl/d, according to Kpler. This is less than half of the May-October 2018 average of 563,000bl/d, as reported by SVB. "No Asian country is interested in risking their diplomatic and trade relations with the US over Iran. All the Indian private refineries halted their imports from Iran and only the public refineries are importing oil, with a high compliance with US waivers," says SVB CEO Sara Vakhshouri. Many moved quickly to scale back their imports significantly. Japan cut its imports to zero in October, from about 150,000bl/d averaged over the previous five months, according to SVB figures. This led to 2018 proving the worst year for Iran's sales to Asia's top four buyers (China, India, Japan and South Korea) since sanctions were eased in 2015.

Amid low imports, Iran sanctions worries, Trump officials meet Saudis

S&P Global Platts: February 27, 2019 - The Trump administration needs additional Saudi production in order to allow those sanctions waivers to expire, particularly as sanctions on Venezuelan crude will likely continue to tighten the heavy oil market, said Sara Vakshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International. "On the Saudi side, they need an assurance that the Trump administration is serious in cutting Iran oil production and/or pushing it to zero export," Vakshouri said. "This is important for the Saudis in order to have an exact estimate of market requirements."

A Big Week For Oil Bulls

OilPrice.com: February 15, 2019 - U.S. leverage over Iran wanes due to Venezuela. The U.S. is likely to allow some degree of oil purchases from Iran beyond the May deadline, a growing number of experts believe. The catastrophic losses of oil supply in Venezuela, and the failure to secure rapid regime change, will make it difficult for the U.S. to take Iran’s oil exports down to zero without causing an oil price spike. Venezuela sanctions and tighter heavy crude oil market would lead to another round of…U.S. waivers on Iran oil export sanctions,” Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based SVB Energy International, told the WSJ.

One Potential Beneficiary of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela: Iran

The Wall Street Journal: February 12, 2019 - The U.S. is likely to continue allowing some Iranian shipments beyond April, while reducing the amounts of oil purchased, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based SVB Energy International. “Venezuela sanctions and tighter heavy crude oil market would lead to another round of…U.S. waivers on Iran oil export sanctions,” she said. Iran’s shipments stood at about 1.1 million barrels a day in January—down from 2.3 million barrels a day a year earlier, according to Ms. Vakhshouri.

How Trump’s Venezuela Sanctions Could Undercut His Iran Policy

Foreign Policy: Jan. 29, 2019 - “The Venezuela sanctions, along with sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, will create a tighter market for heavy crude oil,” said Sara Vakhshouri, the president of SVB Energy International. Together, “that would lead to another round of 180-day U.S. waivers on Iran’s oil exports.”