SVB Energy International in the Media 2017 & Prior

Analysis: Business as usual for Iran oil exports as market eyes US sanctions threat

S&P Platts: Oct. 20, 2017 - Sara Vakhshouri, Founder and President at SVB Energy International discusses oil price volatility caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

US Action Could Wreck Iran’s Oil Recovery

Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW): Oct. 16, 2017 - With the US out and a schism in the Western alliance, Tehran would have to count on the EU reviving measures it took in the 1990s to protect European companies doing business with Iran from possible US retaliation. Iran is understandably keen to gain and retain the support of European oil companies. It is unable to attract any US oil partners and major projects with Chinese and other Asian counterparts have not gone well. Restored US sanctions would land European companies, especially those with US business interests, in the crossfire. As well as Total, German industrial giant Siemens and French carmaker Renault have struck deals since sanctions were removed that could be put at risk. Tehran’s best hope would be an isolated Washington and an EU willing to back European business. But there’s obviously room for ambivalence. “EU governments would do their best to convince and encourage their companies to do business with Iran,” says Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International. “However, those companies that have significant business interest in the US would be hesitant to prevent any penalties from the US government side.”

Global refined product markets may grow less certain, speaker warns

Oil and Gas Journal: Sept. 25, 2017 - Global oil product markets could become as unstable as their crude oil counterparts because changing product specifications could reduce output from overseas refineries that have not been updated, a leading observer said. US refiners, which already export significant refined product volumes, potentially could send more overseas, suggested Sara Vakhshouri, a non-resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. “When it comes to refined products, India, Korea, and the US are the major players because their refineries are more sophisticated,” she said during a Sept. 20 presentation at the Institute of World Politics. “It’s important to emphasize US refined products, which have had more of a market impact than US crude. In the near future, more of them could be sold in China.” Vakhshouri said that changes in the International Maritime Organization’s forthcoming new bunker fuel requirement will have a major impact in countries like Iran, which have basic refineries that have not changed over several decades. US refiners are much better positioned with their capacity to make light products from heavy crudes, she indicated. She said that while depressed crude prices created strong gasoline demand, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced production by 1.2 million b/d in the face of a 1.4-1.5 million b/d increase in crude demand in 2017. To keep inventories below a 5-year average and prices above $40/bbl, another 400,000-700,000-b/d cut will be necessary to keep prices above $50/bbl, Vakhshouri said. “Saudi Arabia still has a huge production range that’s larger than other OPEC members and could be reduced,” she said. “We think the Saudis will want to maintain their swing producer role and their 2 million b/d of spare capacity.” Liquefied natural gas markets are less flexible because long-term commitments are required, and production capacity is higher than trading volumes, Vakhshouri said. “Most LNG that is produced in the US is sold to middle-men instead of end users,” she noted. “LNG in Asia and the Middle East is price lower than in the US because it’s based on crude oil’s price. US LNG may start with a lower gas price, but transportation costs are so high it’s not competitive in many markets.” Trends through 2022 Vakhshouri said that by 2022, global LNG export capacity will grow to 650 bcm/year from 452 bcm/year in 2016, and the US will account for 40% of the increase with a 90 bcm/year increase to 106.7 bcm/year. Australia’s production could grow 30 bcm/year to 117.8 bcm/year, while Qatar’s could climb 30 bcm/year to 104.9 bcm/year during that period. She said she expects annual demand to grow 1.6%/year to almost 4,000 bcm from 3,630 bcm in 2016, with China representing 40% of the increase. Primary demand will move from power generation to industries, she predicted. Japan’s expected to push for more flexible contracts might have a major impact on global LNG markets, Vakhshouri said. “From 2025 to 2030, US LNG could be a major source for bunkering,” she said. Asked if US gas pipelines could support more LNG exports, Vakhshouri said she thought they could, although regional prices may pose a problem. “European countries are keen on expanding their LNG supplies and diversifying their sources, but at the end of the day, their tendency is to buy gas from the least expensive supplier,” she said. “Major international companies in Europe are looking into investing in Iran, but it doesn’t involve gas because Russia still influences prices so heavily,” Vakhshouri said. “The Qatari government has not used its gas as a political weapon, proving instead that it’s a reliable supplier.”

Iran's battle for Asian oil market share intensifies

 S&P Platts: Aug. 9, 2017 - Iran's crude and condensate exports fell almost 5% on the month in July and the country now faces a stiff test to maintain its market in Asia as exports to the region trend lower while it still relies on Europe to take one-third of its exports. Total estimated export volume on Aframaxes, Suezmaxes and VLCCs from Iranian ports in July fell almost 5% to 2.37 million b/d from 2.49 million b/d in June, according to data from cFlow, Platts trade flow software. "The market share competition in Asia is very tight and Iran doesn't have any active policy to compete with other major producers in this market (Saudi, Russia and US)," said Sara Vakhshouri, a Middle East expert who runs consultancy SVB Energy International. "Iran is just filling the gap in Europe caused by OPEC production. However the European market doesn't have much more room to absorb extra supplies. Another important issue is that Iran's heavy crude types have a higher chance to be sold in Asia but most of its light crude oil goes to Europe," she added.

Analysis: OPEC/non-OPEC committee has much to discuss but no consensus yet on deeper oil cuts

S&P Platts: July 21, 2017 - While many other analysts said that such a drastic move by the Saudis was unlikely, Sara Vakhshouri, who heads consultancy SVB Energy International, noted that the kingdom's production was still significantly above its production level in November 2014, when OPEC launched its pump-at-will market share strategy. That means Saudi Arabia theoretically has room to cut, should it decide to do so, said Vakhshouri, who is also a fellow at the Atlantic Council. "Saudi petroleum officials on different occasions have indicated that they are not only interested in maintaining their market share but also to control and manage the market," she said. If Saudi Arabia were to agree to a cut, the market's heavy/light imbalance could be exacerbated. The current oversupply in the oil market primarily rests in light, sweet barrels due to production growth in US shale, along with Libya and Nigeria. Saudi Arabia and most of OPEC's key Middle East members, who have shouldered the bulk of the cuts, largely produce sourer and heavier grades, and the market in those crudes has tightened substantially from the deal. Alternatively, Saudi Arabia, which has continued to pump its lighter grades, even as they have cut output in its heavier crudes, could be persuaded to change its balance of production, Vakhshouri said.

Will Total Deal Open Floodgates For Iran?

Petroleum Intelligence Weekly: July 10, 2017 - To do so, Iran’s strategy will be to continue its two-track approach of direct negotia- tions and bid rounds to award new upstream deals. “Being able to sign a 20-year upstream investment agreement with a French company at the time that [the US] administration is taking a tough stance toward Iran has a strategic importance for Iran,” says Sara Vakhshouri, president at Washington-based consultancy SVB Energy International and an Iran expert.

Qatar’s battle for LNG market share

Aljazeera: June 15, 2017 - New supplies created a significant glut in the LNG market, and according to Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International in Washington, DC, market glut had a significant downward impact on the LNG prices and the spot LNG prices in Asia in 2016, which compared to 2014, dropped by 70% and reached slightly above $5/ mBtu. Pricing arrangements have become more flexible as well and buyers, having a choice, have begun to dictate the terms and contract length. Moreover, according to Vakhshouri, the trajectory of the LNG market in the medium term and up to the early 2020s does not show any balancing of the market, and LNG production capacity is expected to remain beyond the trade volumes. In 2016, the global LNG capacity was over 300 million tonnes, while only 268 million tonnes were traded. Vakhshouri does not expect Qatar’s LNG supply to non-Arab consumers to be interrupted, but the change of trade flow and replacement of natural gas exports to UAE could have impact on the LNG prices. The United Arab Emirates imports about 1.8 billion cubic feet/day of gas from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline. “This is a significant volume and even though the LNG market is in no shortage, replacing such an amount with non-Qatari LNG could have impact on the LNG prices.”

Will US LNG Make a Splash in China?

 Informa: June 5, 2017 - "China LNG demand is growing rapidly more than was anticipated by market experts. China's LNG imports in January 2017 rose above 39% in compare to its average imports in January 2016. It is expected that Chinese LNG imports surpass South Korea and make this country the second largest LNG importer after Japan. By 2020-2021 market expects to have further LNG demand growth from China and this could offset some of the extra supply in the market, particularly from Australian and US LNG supply growth. This could also have impact on the LNG prices specially in Asia. The growing LNG demand creates a great opportunity for US LNG industry to sign and secure long-term agreement with this country. US share of LNG exports to China in March was about 7% of this country's imports and this number could increase further in the medium and long term."

Iran's Maxed-Out Crude Output Eases OPEC Push to Extend Cuts

Bloomberg: May 24, 2017 - “If Iran doesn’t succeed in attracting investment, the natural pressure drop of its mature field will be a major hurdle for sustaining production at the current level,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington, D.C.-based consultant SVB Energy International LLC.

Rouhani Win Seen Speeding Iran's Oil Push Amid Trump Threats

Bloomberg: May 22, 2017 - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is in a stronger position after his re-election to push through plans for wooing foreign investors the country needs to boost oil production, according to analysts at Cornerstone Global Associates and SVB Energy. Rouhani’s political foes have less interest in blocking the new contract now that he’s won a new term, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington, D.C.-based consultant SVB Energy. Even so, international investors “are still worried about remaining U.S. sanctions and possible future sanctions that could target Iran’s missile program,” she said by email.

Analysis: Iran sees share of Asian crude oil market slip

S&P Global Platts: May 10, 2017 - "Iran is losing its market share in Asia to Saudi Arabia but on the other hand its share in European markets is increasing," said Sara Vakhshouri, a Middle East expert who runs consultancy SVB Energy International. "Unlike Saudi Arabia which tries to secure a long-term market share in Asia, Iran doesn't have a long-term market strategy and its focus is day-to-day sale of its oil. At the most it tries to secure annual term-contracts with its customers," she added. "Iran is losing its market share in Asia to Saudi Arabia but on the other hand its share in European markets is increasing," said Sara Vakhshouri, a Middle East expert who runs consultancy SVB Energy International. "Unlike Saudi Arabia which tries to secure a long-term market share in Asia, Iran doesn't have a long-term market strategy and its focus is day-to-day sale of its oil. At the most it tries to secure annual term-contracts with its customers," she added.

ANALYSIS: OPEC/non-OPEC cuts may be at risk by Syria military escalation

S&P Global Platts: April 9, 2017 - Sara Vakhshouri, a Middle East expert who runs consultancy SVB Energy International, said Iranian energy officials would be loathe to give up the gains the country has seen in its oil production. The OPEC/non-OPEC deal gave it the best possible result, she said -- an allowance to increase output slightly by 90,000 b/d, as well as the ability to share in any price gains from the collective cuts. "Iran like other OPEC producers doesn't see any economic benefits from a price collapse and low oil prices," she said. "As long as the other players are sticking to the agreement, Iran should also play accordingly."

Saudi Arabia may insist on Iran oil output cuts to continue OPEC deal: sources

S&P Global, Platts: March 22, 2017 - From Iran's viewpoint, the country is already in compliance with its quota, making it unlikely to acquiesce to any demands to cut production, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of consultancy SVB Energy International. Vakhshouri estimates that Iran may be able to raise its production capacity by the end of 2017 to a total of 3.78 million b/d, but no further due to financial constraints. Keeping the current ceiling on Iranian oil output may be all Saudi Arabia can hope for, she said. "Iran's production capacity by the end of 2017 is very close to what they agreed to produce in the first half of the year," said Vakhshouri, who is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "Hence, even if there are political disagreements, Iran can't technically produce much higher."

Will the US Lead the LNG Pack? 10 Energy Thought Leaders Weigh In

Infroma: March 5, 2017 - "At the current time the global LNG market is overwhelmed with supply and the demand growth was not significant in the past years. Also the price differentials between different markets particularly between US and Asia has been reduced significantly. However because of the US unique position in the market and flexibility of its contracts and destination, US can become the future “swing producer” in the LNG and gas market. This is very crucial for the security of the gas supplies and the LNG market. The Fukushima disaster not only surged Japan’s demand for natural gas but also it increased the price differences between Asia and other regions. One of the causes of this price spike was due to lack of flexibility in re-directing the LNG supplies. Solid long-term contracts with fixed destination created challenges for major suppliers like Qatar to change their trade flow and re-direct their supplies to Japan in the shortest time. Hence having a supplier such as the US with higher flexibility and ability to play the role of the swing producer will increase the security of the global LNG and gas supplies particularly at the time of a sudden supply interruption in the market."

Trump Impedes Iran Upstream Aims in 2017

Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW): Jan. 9, 2017 - Iran’s oil sector exceeded most expectations this year, but the real test is to come in 2017. Following the lifting of sanctions last January, Iran added almost 1 million barrels per day last year, bringing it more revenue and prestige within Opec. But the next expansion phase is trickier, and oil markets should not expect Iran to produce much more than its current 3.8 million b/d in 2017. For higher output, it will need the financial might and expertise of foreign companies, which might be harder to get after Donald Trump becomes US president this month (PIW Nov.7’16). One year ago, there was plenty of doubt that Iran would be able to meet its promises of add- ing 500,000 b/d “immediately” after sanctions were lifted Jan. 16 and then win its customers back in an oversupplied oil market. Now, there is limited room to boost production in the short term, and the big jump — to 4.6 million b/d — will have to wait until 2021. “We won’t see much of an increase in Iran’s production in 2017,” says Sara Vakhshouri, an Iran expert and president at Washington-based SVB Energy International. Some capacity expansions are expected, potentially around 50,000-90,000 b/d, she said. These additions are likely to come from fields in southwestern Iran, on the border of Iraq.

Iran signs more initial agreements with IOCs

 Interfax Energy: Dec. 22, 2016 - The agreements somewhat undermine the tender process. By opting to negotiate on a one-to-one basis, Iran may not secure the best deals, suggested Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. "Signing individual contracts [as opposed to] a public bidding round reduces the transparency and the chance of having a completion among investors and being able to choose among different investors," Vakhshouri told Interfax Natural Gas Daily. "These contracts are only [heads of agreements] – they are not the final contracts and we cannot evaluate them until the final contracts are signed," she added.

Tillerson to push energy security, fight sanctions as top US diplomat

S & P Global- Platts: Dec. 13, 2016 - Sara Vakhshouri, an expert on Iran sanctions and the Middle East, said the prospects for easing sanctions on major oil producers will increase investment opportunities in these countries, which could increase global energy security.

How the OPEC deal breaks down for 3 big producers

Market Watch: Dec. 3, 2016 - Saudi Arabia was the big winner of the November deal. The country’s two-year-old strategy of tolerating low oil prices, sparked by an unwillingness of OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 2014 to reduce production in the face of a supply glut, clearly paid off. By not reducing production then, the Saudis gained market share, filling much of the void left by Iran’s sanctions-related supply cut of 1mbd. The November deal means the Saudis must reduce output by 486,000 barrels a day, to 10.05 million barrels a day. But this number is only 123,000 barrels below its 2015 average daily production and, indeed, higher than in previous years. This means the Kingdom’s output is remaining at its sustainable production level of around 10mbd, or nearly one-third of overall OPEC output.

With the Trump Win, Will Iran’s First Post- Sanctions Energy Deal Be Its Last?

Foreign Policy: Nov. 9, 2016 - Since sanctions were relaxed, “many Western companies did ‘window shopping’ and showed interest in investing in Iran’s energy industry,” but no deals were signed until now, said Sara Vakhshouri, a veteran of the Iranian national oil company now at the Atlantic Council. Part of that was due to a global glut of oil and natural gas, which depressed interest in new projects, but it was still “discouraging” for Iran, she told FP. But the Total deal indicates some ways to sidestep the sanctions thicket. Total is financing the deal in euros in part to avoid U.S. limitations on dollar transactions, she noted. And Vakhshouri said the deal’s timing, at least from Tehran’s point of view, was an effort to send an unmistakable signal. “By signing this deal with Total before the U.S. election is finalized, Iran eagerly sent a message to international investors that the result of the U.S. election could not have a significant impact on the nuclear deal and its energy industry,” she told Foreign Policy.

OPEC to open freeze talks to seven non-OPEC producers, as technical meeting continues

 Platts: Oct. 28, 2016 - Representatives of OPEC's 14 countries will continue their freeze negotiations Saturday, with several non-OPEC producers slated to join the talks in Vienna, as the organization tries to widen the scope of the output deal it tentatively reached in Algiers. ... "Any contribution to the freeze agreement from OPEC or Russia will only last while the contributors are benefiting from that," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "If the prices reach a level that US shale oil production surges significantly, OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Russia will not give up their market share to their rival."...

Corralling the Cartel: OPEC and Oil Prices

 The Cipher Brief: Oct. 21, 2016 - Following informal OPEC talks in Algiers, members announced that they would work out a plan to reduce collective production by approximately 200 to 700 thousand barrels per day (bpd) during their next official meeting in November. However, the actual details of who will cut and by how much remain hazy. As Founder and President of SVB Energy International, Sara Vakhshouri writes, “the main challenge after this agreement will be its implementation, the details of the agreement, and how the supply will actually be reduced."...

EXPERT COMMENTARY The Importance of OPEC's September Agreement

 The Cipher Brief: Oct. 21, 2016 - The OPEC decision has both a psychological and an actual impact on the market and oil prices. At a moment, when there is a serious glut in the market, oil prices are more sensitive to any expectation of the supply and demand trend in the future. Since Iran’s nuclear deal and sanctions removal in January 2016, the prospect of Iran’s production bump has impacted expectations in the market. Iran’s production rise not only had an actual impact on market fundamentals and increased overall global supplies, it also increased the rivalry between major producers over market share. This pushed major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Angola to offer further discounts to their costumers in Asian and European markets in order to maintain and increase their market shares in those regions....

The Much-Speculated OPEC Freeze And What to Watch For

Platts: Aug. 24, 2016 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of consulting firm SVB Energy and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, estimated that Iran could add 100,000 to 150,000 b/d to the market between now and the end of the year. Anything further, though, "would depend on Iran's ability to find new markets and sign new term contracts," she said.

Inside the Plan to Undo the Iran Nuclear Deal

Politico: July 15, 2016 - "Iran’s oil and gas sectors haven’t seen any major investment yet", said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst in Washington who previously worked in Iran’s public and private energy sectors. Vakshouri lays the blame more on Iran’s shoulders than on its opponents here. Six months since sanctions were removed, Iran still hasn’t finalized its upstream investment regulations under a new petroleum contract. She blames rivalries among Iranian political groups and a lack of leadership over economic and industrial policy.

Iran: Scenarios, opportunities, and challenges facing new investors

Economist (Economist Intelligence Unit): July 1, 2016 - SVB Energy International has been quoted in Economist (Economist Intelligence Unit) report on "Iran: Scenarios, opportunities, and challenges facing new investors".

Complaints About The US Aside, Iran Seen Sticking to Nuclear Deal

Platts: May 23, 2016 - "If Iran walks away from the nuclear deal, it is going to lose a lot," said Sara Vakhshouri, an independent consultant on Iranian and Middle East energy and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "The country would face tougher sanctions and limitations than before in the low price environment." "Companies that at this time last year were impatiently waiting for the nuclear deal to enter Iran's energy industry have all lost their excitement in the process of waiting for the final contract approval," Vakhshouri said.

Iran Eyes Summer for Upstream Opening

Energy Intelligence: May 9, 2016 - Approval of the IPC now rests not with the parliament but with Iran's General Inspection Organization, an arm of the country's judiciary, which has asked for a dozen or so revisions to be considered before it is approved. Zanganeh has agreed to consider these revisions and the IPC could be ready to be launched "by June or July" if the approval process goes smoothly, says Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington­based consultancy SVB Energy International.

Saudi overhaul leaves crude oil policy intact

Gulf News: May 8, 2016 - “I don’t expect the kingdom to cut its oil production at some point soon or by the June Opec meeting. The kingdom will not give up its market share to its rivals either Iran or Russia, or the US shale oil,” Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International based in Washington told Gulf News by email. On the new oil minister, Sara said Saudi Arabia followed its traditional trend of appointing a technical person as the Minister of Petroleum and head of Saudi Aramco, rather than just choosing a member of the royal family to pursue this job. “Khalid Al Falih has a technical petroleum background and education and has more than three decades of experience working in the energy industry and Saudi Aramco,” she said about the new oil minister. “The replacement of the Saudi Oil minister (Al Nuaimi) was expected and was not shocking to us especially at the time that the Deputy Crown Prince is getting ready to shake up the Kingdom’s energy and economic policy,” she said on the sacking of Al Naimi.

Saudi Arabia to create huge investment fund

Marketplace: April 1, 2016 - Despite the fall in oil prices, there should be plenty of buyers, from investment banks to other oil companies, said Sara Vakhshouri, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. "Many people in the world want to have access or shares of the hugest oil company in the world," she said. Saudia Arabia could take a page from Norway, Vakhshouri said, which has used its oil riches to build one of the world's most successful sovereign wealth funds.

Japan mulls strategic moves in changing energy landscape, forum told

Oil and Gas Journal: March 11, 2016 - Iran's return to global crude markets with the lifting of Western sanctions against it has revived its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, other speakers pointed out. "Saudi Arabia does not seem inclined to give up the market share it gained while Iran was under international sanctions," said Sara Vakhshouri, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. "But it was Russia which took Iran's traditional oil market share in China. In January, the Chinese imports of oil from Iran were less than in January 2015 when Iran was still under sanctions." Despite differences in their governments, the Iranians and Saudis are both trying to structure new oil supply deals in ways that reflect current global market realities, she said. "Now that a nuclear deal has been reached, Iran is suddenly open to all kinds of investments after so many years of seeing no one except the Chinese and Russians," Vakhshouri said. "Saudi Arabia has made significant agricultural investments in the US. It also owns the largest US refinery, the Motiva plant in Port Arthur, where it can decide to send its crude oil."

Iran's New Petroleum Contract: A Break With the Past

Natural Gas Europe: Feb. 22, 2016 - Iran has huge oil and gas reserves and is among the top countries with oil and gas reserves, but years of sanctions and war since the 1979 revolution have prevented the country from receiving the required technology and investment. It is hoping that the new upstream contract will end the isolation. In an interview with NGE, Iranian-born analyst Sara Vakhshouri, who runs Washington-based energy consultancy SVP and is also a senior energy fellow with the Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council said that all the ups and downs Iran has faced make it an untapped market, especially in the gas field: "Iran has huge gas reserves and the production costs of oil and gas are very low, the complexity of the rocks are very simple, the rate of return and production is high, especially in the gas fields. It's really an untapped market."

What's up with Saudi Arabia and its oil?

Market Place: Feb. 21, 2016 - Mideast energy consultant Sara Vakhshouri said a price war sinks high-cost producers, like fracking companies. They drill in shale rock in America and want to go global. "The low prices really kept the shale revolution a U.S. phenomenom, rather than expanding it to countries like China," he said. And, Vakhshouri said the move to cut prices keeps the world's car drivers addicted to petroleum, rather than trying alternatives. "The low oil prices could slightly push global demand high," he said. "It of course makes it harder for renewables to progress as fast as they were doing."

Oil rally fueled by OPEC noise, just bulls clutching at straws'

Financial Post: Feb. 18, 2016 - "If there is a will between Saudi Arabia and Russia to control the market, it (the freeze) is going to happen," says Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based analyst who once worked for the National Iranian Oil Company. "But if they are waiting for Iran, it's not a rational decision."

Access to oil markets only a first step for Iran, UH panel says

Fuel Fix: Feb. 15, 2016 - "Iran's main challenge is finding customers and selling oil in the current market," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of energy consulting group SVB Energy International. Iranian officials have said they plan to immediately boost production by 500,000 barrels per day and add another 500,000 barrels per day over the next six months. But those barrels will need to carve out space in a global market already flush with oil, Vakhshouri said. Europe could be the prime target. "Iran lost about 600,000 barrels per day of market share in Europe when sanctions took effect," she said, adding that they may be able to claw back as much as 250,000 barrels per day of crude.

Davos Diary: Iran Insists It's Open for Business. Will It Have Any Customers?

Foreign Policy,: Jan. 22, 2016 - complexity are very attractive for investors, particularly at the current time of low oil prices," Sara Vakhshouri, formerly of the Iranian national oil company and now head of energy consultancy SVB Energy International, told Foreign Policy. The new contracts, Vakhshouri said, are "much more flexible and attractive" than the old terms, but by themselves would not likely be enough to entice Big Oil away from easier projects elsewhere. In that sense, she said, low oil prices and low production costs are "Iran's lucky charm to attract international investors." For the gas game, Vakhshouri said, Iran's "massive gas reserves and unique geographical position" could one day make it a key player for markets both West and East.

Saudi Arabia-Iran Conflict, Rising Middle East Tensions Add To Oil Market Uncertainty

Energy Fuse: Jan. 5, 2016 - "Even though this is the strongest direct tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the 1980s, the possibility of a military clash or any action that could interrupt the oil production and supply flow of the two countries is very less likely," Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based consultancy SVB Energy International, told The Fuse. "Both countries are heavily dependent on their oil revenue, particularly at the current time of low oil prices." "Ironically, the events could actually contribute to the market's expectation of oversupply in the near future as it loses hope in cooperation between the two countries to control output," said Vakhshouri.

Foreign firms dash to get in on Iran 'gold rush' - but US companies left out in cold

The Guardian: Jan. 2, 2016 - "Despite its huge oil and gas reserves, US energy companies are treading carefully. Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said: "I really cannot imagine in 2016 seeing any major US energy companies going in. "Very important for these firms is security. Even if the sanctions are lifted, if you're Chevron or ExxonMobil and you're sending American personnel to Iran, you're going to be concerned until relations are normalized."

End of oil export ban will have a small impact in the short term

USA Today: Dec. 16, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst at SVB Energy International and the Atlantic Council think tank, said the end of the export ban will help stabilize global oil prices. Some of the world's major producing countries, such as Iraq, Syria and Libya have oil fields that are threatened or under control of terrorists, such as the Islamic State group. International airstrikes to counter those terrorists, who have sold oil to raise funds, have destroyed oil facilities. That takes that oil off the marketand affects prices, Vakhshouri said. "So it's really important to have supply from countries not in these areas, including the U.S.," she said.

LNG Exports the Most Powerful Demonstration of US Geopolitics in Decades

Real Clear Energy,: Dec. 13, 2015 - With the signing of the nuclear deal in July, Iran has decided to move on, and its natural gas industry expects to benefit from increased trade in oil and gas services and technology that are no longer being held up by sanctions. "They are very aware that they lost the opportunity for exporting gas as LNG," said Sara Vakhshouri, an Iranian energy analyst with SVB Energy International in Washington. "Iran's major investment for gas export is by pipeline" to neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iraq, India, and Oman.

U.N.: Iran conducted nuclear weapons research as recently as 2009

USA Today: Dec. 12, 2015 - Iran is poised to add a half million barrels a day to the saturated world oil supply by mid-2016, once the sanctions relief goes into effect, said Sara Vakhshouri, a senior energy fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. Positive news on Iran's nuclear agreement with world powers "could have a psychological downward impact on the global oil prices," Vakhshouri said. "This could happen even before Iran increases its export volumes."

Senate panel told that effectively curbing ISIS oil revenue won't be easy

Oil and Gas Journal: Dec. 10, 2015 - "If Iran comes out of isolation, it won't depend as much on its oil exports as before," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVG Energy International and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. "The emphasis will be on processing more oil and gas domestically and turning it into higher-value products." National Iranian Oil Co. also can be expected to place a greater emphasis on developing the country's huge gas resources, Vakhshouri said. This could have a strong export impact not only as gas but also as electricity generated from gas for sales to Iraq, Pakistan, and other nearby nations, she said, adding that Iran's location also could make it a significant energy transit point.

New Iranian Oil and Gas Contracts Extend 20-25 Years

Oil and Gas 360: Dec. 3, 2015 - This new model offers an attractive option to companies looking for projects in the Middle East, Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International and Senior Energy Fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, told Oil & Gas 360. "It's difficult to attract investment anywhere right now with low oil prices, but low production costs mean Iran is still competitive," said Vakhshouri. "The IPCs are very similar to the contracts offered by Iraq's central government, but without some of the security issues associated with groups like ISIS." "NIOC hopes to increase the quality of work and protect its oil and gas reservoirs by engaging international companies for longer periods of time," said Vakhshouri. "This will give the investors a more vested stake in the field and could create political advantages for the country, as investing companies would have long-term interest in Iran." Another major concern for companies looking to invest in Iranian oil and gas fields are their options for arbitration should problems arise during the project. "Companies with bilateral agreements with Iran can go through international arbitration if problems arise," said Vakhshouri. "Otherwise, they will need to go through the Iranian court system." "[Zanganeh] is trying to leave the door open for more input from countries as Iran prepares for sanctions to be lifted," said Vakhshouri, when asked about the oil minister's comments.

Analysis: Russia-Iran courtship has its limits

USA Today: Nov. 23, 2015 - Iran, whose economy has been stifled by years of nuclear sanctions, plans to develop its oil and natural gas fields and increase output by 1 million barrels a day, or about 25%, by mid-2016, says energy analyst Sara Vakhshouri, of SVB Energy International in Washington. That will put downward pressure on prices that are already at their lowest point in decades, Vakhshouri wrote in a recent study.

Dk petrol fiyatlar ran' cazip klyor

 Harriyet: Nov. 22, 2015 - Atlantik Konseyi Kresel Enerji Merkezi'nde Kdemli Aratrmac olan Sara Vakhshouri ise ran'n petroln kresel pazarda satmak iin kendi ham petrol tanker filosunu kurmaya baladn syleyerek, "ran yaptrmlar kalkar kalkmaz ham petrol retimini gnlk 500 bin varil, bir sonraki alt ayda 500 bin varil daha artrabilir" dedi.

Iran Gets Ready to Sell to the World

Bloomberg: Sept. 10, 2015 - .... Even if Iran can increase production as quickly as Zanganeh claims, it may have to incentivize buyers by offering lower prices or by trading oil for goods or services, says Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, an energy consulting group in Washington. That's because the Saudis have used long-term contracts to lock in customers who not long ago bought Iranian oil....

Iran Avoiding The Guards

Energy Compass (Energy Intelligence): Sept. 4, 2015 - ... While Iran's Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act generally puts no limitations on the share of investment for foreign investors, enabling up to 100% ownership, the situation is different in the upstream oil and gas sector. "Foreign investors were in the past required to enter into joint ventures with an Iranian local partner. This is to maintain domestic control over sensitive upstream oil and gas projects," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based SVB Energy International, an energy consultancy... ...Experts say the guards are connected to many, possibly hundreds, of companies in the country, making it potentially difficult and time-consuming to avoid entering into business with them, knowingly or not. "This will complicate and prolong the duration of negotiations and choosing the domestic partner for the foreign firms," Vakhshouri said...

Foreign firms scramble to fix Iran's refineries once sanctions end

Reuters: Aug. 17, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said scores of western oil industry officials are clamoring for this business. There would be huge competition but the right companies should be able to succeed. "If you can bring the technology 

Iran to become competitor to Russia in energy markets

Daily Sabah: July 22, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of the Washington-based SVB Energy International and a consultant at the National Iranian Oil Company, said that Iran would be an important competitor to Russia in the global oil and natural gas markets after the nuclear agreement was signed with P5+1 countries comprising the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany. Vakhshouri told Anadolu Agency that there would be a fierce competition in the global energy markets between Iran and Russia, which have become allies recently thanks to the mutual steps taken by the two countries. Emphasizing that European energy companies have already started to negotiate with Iranian energy authorities due to the country's vast oil and natural gas reserves, Vakhshouri said: "Iran has made new investment regulations for the energy sector. Those regulations are creating a much more attractive investment climate compared to the past." Now that sanction will be lifted and new regulations are enforced, Iran can reach the technology that it needs to increase its oil and natural gas production, Vakhshouri said, adding: "Europe is trying to decrease its dependency on Russia oil and natural gas after the Ukraine crisis. Iran is a perfect alternative for Europe's energy diversity." She also stressed that Russia was not as attractive as before for energy investments because of the sanctions imposed on the country.

A new era for 'energy titans' begins

Anadolu Agency: July 21, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, the head of Washington-based energy company, SVB Energy International, and a former advisor to National Iranian Oil Company International, told Anadolu Agency that many European energy companies have already started negotiations with Iranian energy officials. Vakhshouri, who noted Iran's massive oil and gas resources, said that its oil, gas and condensate production will rise in the next few years. She added that Iran has introduced new investment plans to attract foreign investment in their upstream energy sector. The so-called 'Iran Petroleum Contracts,' offer more enticing terms than their previous oil contracts.

Dnya enerji piyasalarnda Rusya-ran rekabeti

TimeTurk: July 21, 2015 - Vakhshouri, AA muhabirine yapt aklamada, son dnemde karlkl atlan admlarla mttefik konumuna gelen Rusya ve ran arasnda zellikle kresel enerji piyasalarnda byk bir rekabet yaanacan savundu. Sahip olduu nemli petrol ve doalgaz rezervleri nedeniyle Avrupal enerji irketlerinin imdiden ranl enerji yetkilileriyle grmeye baladna iaret eden Vakhshouri, "ran enerji sektr iin yeni yatrm dzenlemeleri gerekletirdi. Bu dzenlemeler, eskiye oranla ok daha cazip bir yatrm ortam yaratyor" dedi.

Iran enerjide Rusya'ya rakip olacak

EuroNews: July 21, 2015 - ran Ulusal Petrol irketi danmanlarndan SVB Enerji irketi Bakan Sara Vakhshouri enerji piyasalarnn geleceiyle ilgili AA'ya konutu. Vakshouri, son dnemde yakn stratejik ilikiler gelitiren Rusya ve ran arasnda, kresel enerji piyasalarnda byk bir rekabet yaanacan savundu.

Iran's Return to Oil Markets Is Good for Energy Firms but Bad for Russia

Foreign Policy,: July 14, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, a former advisor to National Iranian Oil Company International, said Iran is going to need quite a bit of outside help to reach its target of producing 5 million barrels per day by 2020. "To reach this goal Iran would need $70 billion of investment in its oil and gas fields," Vakhshouri, who is now president of SVB Energy International, wrote in a note circulated Tuesday morning. here will be a short-term impact to Tehran's getting back into the oil game, though it won't be nearly as substantial as the long-term impact. Iran is thought to have oil reserves of approximately 40 million barrels sitting on offshore tankers waiting to be sold. "This amount of stored oil can be sold even before any removal of oil export related sanctions. China, India, South Korea and Japan [all] have waivers from sanctions," Vakhshouri wrote. "Iran can also increase its oil and condensate production up to 800,000 barrels per day within the next six to 12 months," Vakhshouri said in a subsequent interview with FP. Vakhshouri said this presents Russian President Vladimir Putin with a difficult choice: cooperate or suffer. "If the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East don't cause any supply interruption, the market, the oil producers mainly OPEC and Russia have to agree whether to reduce their production or start a price war," she said.

Iran Deal Reached: Predictions on Added Crude Exports Range from 400-800 MBOPD

Oil and Gas 360: July 14, 2015 - A Credit Suisse conference call that was held with Iranian expert Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki forecast about 500 MBOPD coming back online by year-end 2015; analysts at Raymond James expect more than 500 MBOPD in the next 12-18 months; SVB Energy International predicts as much as 800 MBOPD (400-600 MBOPD in crude and an additional 200 MBOPD in condensate) in the next 6-12 months; Wood Mackenzie expects that exports will not reach 600 MBOPD until year-end 2017; and the IEA anticipates 800 MBOPD "within months of lifting sanctions."

What the Iran nuclear deal means for oil prices

VOX: July 14, 2015 - Even if all goes according to plan, the US and EU won't lift sanctions on Iran until 2016 at the earliest. Once that happens, Iran can finally start selling some of the roughly 30 to 40 million barrels of oil it currently has stored in vast floating tankers off its coast. That could push down, modestly, on oil prices.

Iranian oil expected to drive prices down

Washington Examiner: July 14, 2015 - Iran could boost production from 2.9 million barrels to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2020, said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst with SVB International. Iran also could immediately lower prices because it has stored about 37 million barrels of oil and condensate, a form of light oil, on offshore tankers that it can quickly release to the market.

Oil prices turn volatile after Iran reaches nuke deal

USA Today: July 14, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based energy analyst at SVB Energy International, said that with Iran's sanctions lifted it would be able to boost its oil production from 2.9 million barrels a day to 4.2 million barrels a day by 2020. Oil prices can also be expected to drop, Vakhshouri said, because Iran has as much as 37 million barrels of crude in storage on tankers floating in the Persian Gulf.  

The Future of Saudi-Iranian Relations Will Be Written in Oil

Lobelog: July 11, 2015 - Sara Vakhshouri, whose analyses of Iran's energy sector have been featured on LobeLog, argues that the oil ministry has set its sights too high. She recently wrote, "Iran would probably be capable of adding up to 800,000 b/d of oil and liquids to its production in the next 6 to 12 months." The decision to actually produce that amount will also depend on the timing of sanctions relief and the state of the market itself. Regardless, Iran will need access to international investment and technology in order to sustain and then expand this forecasted production capacity. Its aging oil fields are performing poorly in the absence of technically sophisticated injections of gas and water. Vakhshouri estimates that since 2011, Iran has failed to meet more than 60% of its injection targets. She believes that Iran's goal of reaching an output of 5.7 million b/d is overly ambitious. "It will take at least 3 to 4 years for Iran (from the time that it gets access to international investment and technology) to regain its pre-sanctions crude oil' production capacity," said Vakhshouri. Since Iran's production capacity hovered around 4 million b/d in the late 2000s, Iran could reasonably add a little over 1 million b/d in the first few years after an agreement.

نحوه بازگشت ایران به بازارهای انرژی دنیا در دوران پساتحریم

وسسه مشاوره انرژی SVB به تازگی در گزارشی با بررسی شرایط بازگشت ایران به بازارهای جهانی نفت و گاز در دوره پساتحریم پیش بینی کرد که این کشور می تواند ظرف ٦ ماه تا یک سال، روزانه ٨٠٠ هزار بشکه به تولید نفت خام و مایعات گازی خود بیفزاید. به گزارش شانا، موسسه مشاوره انرژی اس وی بی (SVB Energy International LLC) مستقر در واشینگتن در گزارشی با عنوان «بازگشت ایران به بازار انرژی در دوره پساتحریم» برآورد کرد که تولید کنونی نفت خام ایران روزانه حدود ٢ میلیون و ٩٠٠ هزار بشکه است، به طوری که تولید میعانات گازی و مایعات گازی حدود ٦٩٢ هزار تا ٧١٠ هزار بشکه در روز است. مطالعات موسسه مشاوره انرژی اس وی بی نشان می دهد که ایران پس از دستیابی به یک توافق جامع هسته ای با کشورهای گروه ١+٥ می تواند ظرف ٦ ماه تا یک سال روزانه ٨٠٠ هزار بشکه نفت و مایعات گازی به تولید خود بیفزاید. ...بر اساس این گزارش، روزانه ٤٠٠ تا ٦٠٠ هزار بشکه از این مقدار نفت خام و ٢٠٠ هزار بشکه دیگر آن میعانات گازی خواهد بود.  

伊朗核谈判有望达成协议 原油暴跌近8%

Sina Finance: July 7, 2015 - 前伊朗石油公司分析师、现SVB主席Sara Vakhshouri表示,“一旦协议达成,伊朗可以增加20万桶/日的凝析油产量。另外,随着West Karun油田项目的完成,到2020年伊朗还可以额外增加65-70万桶的原油日产量。” 不过,Vakhshouri指出,要在2020年达到上述的中期产量目标,伊朗需要700亿美元的投资。 他还表示,到2018年South Pars的凝析油日产量将触及70-80万桶,2020年再升至100万桶。

Lawmakers alarmed over Iranian nuclear windfall

USA Today: July 5, 2015 - The lifting of other sanctions would allow Iran to boost its oil production from 2.9 million barrels a day to 4.2 million barrels a day by 2020, according to a report by Washington-based energy analyst Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International. Oil prices are likely to fall in reaction to Iran's new oil output, Vakhshouri said.

Iran's Oil Production Boost Scenarios In A Post-Sanctions Era

MEES: July 3, 2015 - The latest status of Iranian oil and gas fields indicate that Iran's cur- rent crude oil' production is about 2.9mn b/d, while its condensate and NGL produc- tion is about 692,000-710,000 b/d. Most of Iran's condensate is the by-product of the non-associated gas in the giant South Pars giant gas field, shared with Qatar. Iran's current condensate production is about 480,000 b/d and is expected to rise to 630,000 b/d by mid-2016. Field-by-field oil and gas studies indicate that Iran would probably be capable of adding 500,000- 800,000 b/d of oil and liquids to its production in the next 6-12 months. Some 300,000 to 500,000 b/d of this will be crude oil and NIOC can also add additional 200,000 b/d of condensate to its liquid production by mid-2016. This additional condensate will be from Phases 12, 15, 16, 17 and 18 of the South Pars gas field...

Iranian nuke deal won't lead to immediate windfall, think tank asserts

The Hill: June 23, 2015 - "A nuclear deal with Iran will not initiate an unchecked windfall of capital into Iran, a factor that may undermine Iran's confidence in a deal and the incentive structure for its adherence," authors Elizabeth Rosenberg and Sara Vakhshouri wrote. "The maintenance of some sanctions on Iran, even in a best-case scenario for nuclear diplomacy, and the threat of re-imposing tough economic sanctions if Iran circumvents the deal will serve concomitantly to temper what would otherwise be enthusiastic and potentially ubiquitous investment into Iran.

Will Western Firms Really Race Into Iran After a Nuclear Deal?

Foreign Policy,: June 23, 2015 - A Center for a New American Security report released Tuesday argues it could take months, if not years, for Western companies and institutional investors like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to invest in Iran's economy. There's a simple reason: It's not worth the risk. "The significant theme here is it's not going to be this tsunami of money pouring into Iran," Rosenberg, who is a senior fellow at CNAS, said. She coauthored the report with Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International.

Iran's oil output goals likely unrealistic because of risk, report says

Platts: June 23, 2015 - "A more realistic assessment would be an expansion of up to 800,000 b/d within six months and a major oil output rebound only after 2016, though even this pace would put Iran on course for a structural shift and acceleration from the current modest pace of economic growth," the Center for a New American Security report states. The report claims it is unlikely that Iran's crude oil capacity -- currently at an estimated 3.8 million b/d -- would exceed 4.5 million to 5 million b/d by the early 2020s, or 5.5 million b/d by 2030.


Oil and Gas Journal: June 1, 2015  - Dr. Sara Vakhshouri wrote a piece on Iran's technical capability and market access for increasing its oil production rebound after the sanctions. 'For an oil market destabilized by geopolitical turbulence and oversupply, an important question is when Iranian production, now limited by international sanctions, might recover and rise toward the Islamic Republic's geologic potential. The question gains importance this month, by the end of which officials of Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany are to have concluded an agreement on Iranian development of nuclear weapons. Because Iranian negotiators have made ending the sanctions against it a priority, the possibility of a surge in exports from the country looms over the market. Yet a combination of factors complicates the ability of Iran to bring large new supply quickly to the market. Sanctions on oil exports are not the only impediment. The country also must solve technical problems, grapple with international sanctions on investment, and regain lost market share...'

OPEC meeting may be lull before the storm

USA Today: May 31, 2015 - "I don't think any significant decisions will come out of this meeting," Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington energy analyst, said of the upcoming session. "But if Iran reaches a deal, there's going to be more to discuss and more expectations at the next meeting." Vakhshouri, a former market analyst for the National Iranian Oil Company, said Teheran, with a nuclear deal in hand, would insist that other OPEC members "reduce their production and open space" for Iran to sell more oil on world markets...."If everything goes well by the end of June or early July, and sanctions start easing for Iran by the end of the year, Iran's production is going to rise slightly by the end of the year," she said. However, Vakhshouri notes that a nuclear agreement alone is unlikely to trigger big changes in oil prices soon. Iran's exports, which have fallen from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2012, when the sanctions began to take effect, to 1.1 million barrels a day now, will need time to recover, she said...."Considering all of the political turmoil in the Middle East, where most of the crude oil flow is coming from, prices have been relatively low," she said.

Iran oil to put pressure on prices as nuclear talks in critical stage

Gulf News: March 28, 2015 - Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of the US based SVB Energy International and an expert on Iran said Iran can technically increase its oil production between 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day within 3 to 6 months. "However this increase could only happen if there is an ease on sanctions against Iran's oil exports, and also capability of this country for finding new markets. It will have an immediate psychological effect on the market and will push the prices down."

Spiderweb' of sanctions means Iranian oil unlikely to flood the market

Financial Post: March 23, 2015 - "Iran could increase its oil production between 500,000 to 800,000 bpd within three to six months," according to Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based consultant who once worked at the National Iranian Oil Company." There are multi-layered sanctions by multiple entities and you cannot just flip a switch and make them go away. "According to Iran's five-year plan, the country had to invest US$255 billion in its energy industry from 2011-2015," Ms. Vakhshouri said, noting that the industry fell well short of that target due to international sanctions and a ban on foreign investment."

Despite Netanyahu claim, cheap oil not seen swaying Iran behavior

Reuters: March 5, 2015 - "It is not possible for the United States to keep this consensus against Iran with European countries and other countries for much longer," said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy consultant based in Washington who formerly worked in Iran's energy sector. "The sanctions and this consensus could erode after some time."

Shale revolution will 'undermine' rivals, says Sen. Bill Cassidy

Washington Examiner: Feb. 26, 2015 - ...'Middle East oil is projected to maintain its market share despite the competition from U.S. shale', said Sara Vakhshouri, president of consulting firm SVB Energy International. But it won't increase its slice of the pie because demand in the region is rising as petrochemicals industries soar and fuel subsidies encourage waste.

End of Iran sanctions to benefit UAE

Gulf News: Jan. 6, 2015  - Recently at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International said an additional oil of 500,000 to 600,000 barrels of oil per day will enter market in the next six to eight months if sanctions on Iran are lifted.

For Saudi Arabia, Supply and Demand Trump Geopolitics

Lobelog: Jan. 6, 2015 - .."But lower oil prices today could provide an opportunity for Iran to regain its lost market share in the medium to long term. More than half of Iran's export capacity was wiped out due to sanctions after 2011. What with the anticipated growth in overall oil supplies from unconventional sources - as well as from Iraq, whose production was expected to increase rapidly with the signing of major contracts with Western oil companies, at least before the Islamic State's big offensive - the market neither wanted nor needed a flood of Iranian crude. But if current low oil prices persist over the next two years and unconventional oil production declines, Iranian oil will be poised to take up the slack, particularly if Tehran reaches an agreement with the P5+1 on its nuclear program. However, it would take a year or two before Iran could increase its oil production to anywhere near pre-sanctions levels."

Iran, Iraq face difficult time as oil prices plunge

Gulf News: Nov. 30, 2014 - Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of US-based SVB Energy International and an expert on Iran, said the country's economy is going to hurt but they could overcome this by raising taxes. "I think they can manage it but it depends for how long. It will be hard for people due to taxes."

Oil to be in focus at Abu Dhabi energy meet

Gulf News: Nov. 17, 2014 - Abu Dhabi: Important issues affecting the oil and gas industry will be discussed as part of an annual energy conference being held at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research (Ecssr) in Abu Dhabi from Tuesday. Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of the US based SVB Energy International will talk about Iran, potential and implications of a full return to energy markets during the conference.

Iran faces a budget deficit as oil prices fall

Gulf News: Nov. 3, 2014 - "The best strategy for Iran would be to reach an agreement with the group of P5+1 countries (United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany) so that sanctions are eased and the country would be able to increase its production and export. This could reduce its budgetary gap and help Iran to regain its pre-sanctions market share," said Sara Vakhshouri, President of US-based SVB Energy International, a global strategic energy consulting firm specialised in oil and gas industry. She said that Iran will not push for production cuts at this month's Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meeting in Vienna. "Therefore it's not in Iran's interest to push for Opec production drop, as its export is already at its minimum range and this country would not want to lose additional market share. Also, if Opec and Iran reduce their production, there is no guarantee that non-Opec producers would do the same," she added.

Is Iran in Oil Price War with Saudi Arabia?

Iran Review: Oct. 17, 2014 - "Saudi Arabia has started reducing its oil prices without cutting its production, and could have different reasons for this. Change of sale strategy could be the most important cause of this action. Saudi's strategy has been shifted from maintaining a higher range of oil prices in to maintaining and securing its market share'. Instead of waiting for more oil to come into the market and drop the prices, Saudi has take the initiative to adjust itself and its economy to the lower oil price and increasing its market share by offering discounted oil prices."......"Regarding the oil pricing and sale strategy, Iran has already taken the best possible strategy to maintain its market share by offering the same range of discounts that Saudi is offering to its customers. Iran is currently struggling with different sanctions and limitation on its oil export and cannot easily increase its production and export in order to reduce the gap of its expected revenue based on the previous price range. However the reality of the market, lower demand growth and bullish supply growth, has created a serious competition among the major oil producers in the market to maintain and secure their market share. Therefore, Iran has to play the same game that others are playing."

Explainer: The Oil Price Plunge

Lobelog: Oct. 16, 2014 - ..."On the one hand, the acceleration of higher energy efficiency, combined with higher energy prices, the economic crisis in Europe and lower economic growth in China have all put pressure on overall energy demand growth. On the other hand, the global energy supply has had a bullish growth mainly because of the shale oil boom in North America and Iraqi oil output. Yet the lower growth of demand and the higher rate of supply growth have both altered concerns over energy security paradigms, shifting from the security of supply to concerns about the security of demand and the profitability of oil production (in the case of unconventional oil). Keen competition among producers to maintain market share, concerns over the unconventional oil production's profitability, and the effect of lower oil prices on oil dependent economies are all consequences of this broader change in the balance between supply and demand in global energy markets."...

Iran, One Year Under Rouhani

IPSNews: Aug. 4, 2014 - "Rouhani and his team's efforts to reduce sanctions on Iran through the nuclear talks has so far prevented the further cutting of Iranian crude oil production and exports," said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy expert and former advisor to the National Iranian Oil Company. "The [sanctions relief] has not had an immediate significant effect on the economy, but it has certainly had a positive psychological impact on the people," she said...

Iraqi Turmoil And the Global Oil Market

Lobelog: June 30, 2014 - On Saturday June 21, Iraq's largest refinery at Baiji finally succumbed to the forces of the radical Sunni militant group, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, often referred to as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS), after being under siege for nearly two weeks...

Russia, China Finally Sign $400 Billion Energy Deal: Why Now?

Lobelog: May 22, 2014 - After almost a decade of negotiations, Moscow reached a 400 billion dollar energy deal with Beijing yesterday, allowing the Russian state-controlled Gazprom to export gas to China for 30 years.

Iran-India energy ties may take off

Al-Monitor: May 5, 2014 - Following the Geneva interim deal on Nov. 24, 2013, and the partial ease of sanctions against Iran, India's oil secretary, Vivek Rae, announced that India is ready to pay $1.5 billion to Iran for its oil imports...

Gasoline Prices: Iran's Achilles' Heel

Lobelog: April 25, 2014  - The new gasoline prices were announced at midnight on April 24 by the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC).The price for the semi-subsidized gasoline will be 7,000 rials per liter (27 cents) and 10,000 rials (42 cents) for free market price gasoline...

The Ukraine Crisis: A Game-Changer in the Global Energy Market?

 Lobelog: April 9, 2014 - The tension between Russia and the West, and particularly the European Union, over Crimea has once again raised questions over the security of energy supplies and the use of energy as a tool of foreign policy and diplomacy...

Iran- Russia Energy Deal

 يساور الولايات المتحدة الأميركية قلق من مساعي إيران لإبرام اتفاق مقايضة خاص بالطاقة مع روسيا، وذلك بعد أن أحرزت طهران وموسكو تقدما باتجاه اتفاق لمبادلة النفط بالسلع قالت مصادر إيرانية إن قيمته قد تبلغ عشرين مليار دولار، وسيمكن طهران من تعزيز صادراتها النفطية الحيوية في تحد للعقوبات التي يفرضها الغرب  

Iran offers new terms for oil contracts

Al-Monitor: Feb. 26, 2014 - The new Iran Petroleum Contract will offer greater incentives to international oil and gas investors by offering higher potential profits and lower investment risks. The goal of contract is to attract investment and technology to the Iranian oil industry and to increase the industry's overall ...

Iran's Return to the Market could Send Prices Diving

Financial Post: Sept. 26, 2013 - Iran's return to the oil market could trigger a "positive supply shock," sending oil prices plunging by as much as US$20 per barrel, although Saudi Arabia will probably move swiftly to ensure a softer, $10-drop in crude prices..

Saudi Arabia's challenge: Decouple fiscal spending from crude price

Zawya: Sept. 26, 2013 - "The Arab Spring forced the kingdom to increase its public expenditure in order to keep its 27 million people calm. Saudi Arabia's domestic expenses in 2011 increased to USD 129 billion, which is about half of its oil revenues," Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, president at Washington D.C.-based SVB Energy International, told Zawya. "It is estimated that the country needs to sell its oil at least in the range of USD 80 to USD 85 per barrel to balance its budget. This number is expected to increase to above USD 110 per barrel within the next couple of years," Dr. Vakhshouri said.

Iran Oil Minister Vows to Revive Output as He Eyes Price War

Bloomberg: August. 22, 2013 - In his first few days as oil minister in President Hassan Rohani's new government in Tehran, the 61-year-old initiated plans to revive oil production to pre-2005 levels, hinted at a price war to win old customers and brought back managers sidelined by the previous administration...

Iran's Oil Minister Confronts Sanctions

Atlantic Council: Aug. 1, 2013 -  Iran's oil personnel and managers became adept then at navigating hurdles and blockages. For example, shipping Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, with the high risk of being targeted by Iraqi missiles, was one of their formative experiences...  

Production-Sharing Contracts Could Help Renew Iran Oil Market

Al- Monitor: June 24, 2013 - For the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran is offering production-sharing contracts (PSCs) for investment in its upstream energy field, which involves exploration and production stage of the hydrocarbons industry...

Iran's Oil Production At Lowest Since 1986

Lobelog: May 8, 2013 -  In the last week of April, the US Energy Department issued a report showing that Iran's crude oil and condensate exports have dropped to their lowest level in the past 26 years. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Iran's net oil export revenue in 2012 was $69 billion, down from $95 billion in 2011...

Is Iran's December Oil Export Hike Permanent?

Lobelog: Feb. 6, 2013 - Sanctions against Iran by the European Union and the United States, which aim to change Iran's attitude toward its nuclear program, have increased pressure on its oil export and revenue. This resulted in the reduction of Iran's oil exports from 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2011 to around between 900 thousand to slightly above 1 million bpd until October 2012...


Oil and Gas Journal: December 14, 2012 - From the outset, the discussion's question seemed provocative: Can the world live without Iranian oil? Panelists at the Dec. 5 event at the Atlantic Council agreed that global prices haven't shot up because the country's production has fallen so far in recent years...

Iranian Gas In US Cross-Hairs

World Gas Intelligence: August 22, 2012 - "I think the sanctions ... have two goals," Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington consultancy SVB Energy International and previously an advisor to the director of National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), tells WGI. "To increase the psychological pressure on Iran and to prevent Iran from having any long-term strategic relations with its gas customers. [A decision] may not have a significant effect on Iran's income or on the global gas market ... but it will prevent Iran's gas consumers from having a long-term trade and reliance on the country's gas."

Rising Iraqi Oil Output Greases Iran Sanctions

Al- Monitor: June 26, 2012 - Despite bureaucratic hurdles in Iraq and the continued absence of a national oil law, the challenges there to production and exports pale in comparison to Iran's situation...